Continuous Clean Air Auction NOx Budget Market Bulletin and Market Price Indices
October 5, 1999
 

BEST BIDS TO BUY 1999: 25 tons @ $ 650/ton
1999: 50+ tons @ $ 500/ton
2000: 100+ tons @ $1,000/ton
BEST OFFERS TO SELL 1999: 50 tons @ $ 950/ton
1999: 50+ tons @ $ 950/ton
1999: 50 tons @ $1,100/ton
1999: 100 tons @ $1,250/ton
1999: 100+ tons @ $1,200/ton
2000-02: 100+ tons/yr @ $2,000/ton
RECENT TRADE PRICES $ 750/ton (1999)
$ 875/ton (1999)
$ 925/ton (1999)
$ 925/ton (1999)
$ 900/ton (1999)
$1,200/ton (2000)
$1,250/ton (2000)
Swap: 99 for 00-02s @ 1.05:1 ratio
in chronological order
MARKET PRICE INDEX 1999 = $ 825/ton     down $268     (since 9/16/99)

2000 = $1,142/ton     down $36     (since 9/16/99)

2000-02 = $2,018/ton     no change     (since 9/16/99)

The Market Price Index (MPI) is derived by averaging the
Best Bid, Best Offer, and Most Recent Trades.

NOx NEWS

LIVE NOx ALLOWANCE PRICE DATA: Visit our Cantor Environmental Brokerage at www.emissionstrading.com where you will find live NOx and SO2 Allowance prices in the ticker tape across the top of the screen. The real time OTC NOx market bids and offers enhance the continuous auction market data that has been available at our Cantor Environmental Brokerage since August 1997.

NEW CANTOR FITZGERALD EMISSIONS BROKER: After an exhaustive search, please join us in welcoming Lawrence (“Laurie”) Gage to our NY emissions brokering desk. A native of Australia, Laurie transferred to our New York office from Zurich. He brings years of brokering expertise to you, with a special expertise in markets that are not always “liquid”. With his focus on developing informative relationships that go beyond merely “throwing around” numbers, we expect that you will enjoy hearing from Laurie. You can reach Laurie at 800/228-2955 x5 or 212-938-4250.

PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTROL (PFC): As promised in the last Market Bulletin, we would like to briefly explain PFC, should it come into play in year 2000, as many market participants anticipate. Of course, your decisions are your own to make… but what follows here is our interpretation of what PFC may mean. PFC does not apply to ’99 compliance. It may be implemented in year 2000 IF the total number of banked allowances (i.e., vintage 1999 allowances that are not used for compliance) exceeds 10% of the regional budget for the current year (i.e., vintage 2000). If PFC is implemented, banked allowances are rationed IF USED pursuant to the following equation: 0.10 x regional NOx budget/total number of banked allowances. The resultant % is multiplied by each individual bank, and the resultant number of allowances are useable at 1:1. The remainder is useable at 2:1. Thus if PFC is implemented, the more banked allowances a party may have, the more they will also have useable at 1:1. Note that discounting only occurs when the allowances are used; not if they are traded, banked, transferred, etc! For example: assume 220,000 tons of vintage 2000 as the regional NOx Budget with 30,000 banked allowances. This means the PFC ratio is 0.73 (0.10 x 220,000/30,000): or if a party has 1,000 tons of 1999 allowances they will have 730 tons to use at a 1:1 ratio and 270 tons to use at a 2:1 ratio for year 2000 compliance purposes. Some parties have begun to “guesstimate” what the ratio will be, and apply that to the price differentiation between vintage ’99 and vintage ’00 allowances (e.g., if I am willing to pay $1200/ton for ’00 allowances, I would also pay $876/ton for ’99 allowances). Please call us for more assistance in understanding this matter. While you should be careful and consult your advisors we believe that PANIC IS UNWARRANTED.

’99 RECONCILIATION INSTRUCTIONS/FORMS AVAILABLE! EPA has made available on its Cantor Environmental Brokerage the 1999 NOx Allowance Reconciliation Instructions and Forms. This information can be obtained at: http://www.epa.gov/acidrain/otc/noxrec.pdf.

How is the MPI Derived? The MPI, in $/ton, is derived by averaging the following:
1) the Best Bid - the highest price at which a buyer is willing to purchase at least 5 tons of NOx Allowances.
2) the Best Offer - the lowest price at which a seller is willing to sell at least 5 tons of NOx Allowances.
3) the Most Recent Trade - the price(s) at which NOx Allowances have been agreed to be transacted (NOTE: NOx Allowances have not yet been placed in Budget Sources' NATS Accounts, and thus trades cannot yet be "transacted". Until such time, the "Most Recent Trade" represents buyer(s) and seller(s) agreement(s) on price).

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