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Continuous Clean Air Auction OTC NOx
Budget Market Bulletin February 9, 2000 |
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![]() January 2000 saw very little activity in the Spot Price of NOx Allowances. As can be seen from the graph above, prices have stagnated for almost three months. Traders, however, did attempt to breathe life into what was a fairly dead Holiday Season market with an early flurry of trades in Vintage 2000 Allowances. The first week of the new millenium saw some buying, with offers at $950/ton and trades at $975/ton. However, this bright start was tempered by the emergence of several sellers who hit bids at $950 and $900/ton and the offer price dropped to $875/ton. Despite the offer at $875/ton being lifted, the price has settled to a level of $750/ton bid at $900/ton offered. The offer price reflects the strength of selling interest in the market. Somewhat puzzling is the general lack of interest being shown in trading vintage 1999 Allowances. While the 1999s are subject to Progressive Flow Control this year, it seems that opportunities could arise for astute buyers to take advantage of current low prices (as opposed to vintage 2000s) and build a bank of 1999s for compliance in future years. Another indication of the present market sentiment is the predominance of options being traded. Call option sellers were plentiful as evidenced by a lowering of volatilities to around 50%. Put buyers have been keen to take advantage of the lower volatility to hedge any further downside risk. January 2000 has also seen savvy traders hedging their risk by selling and buying Zero Cost Collars. These transactions allow counterparties to lock in both their downside and upside price limits at no cost. For those of you who presently have your attention concentrated elsewhere, this strategy can be an effective and reasonably painless form of protection against any sudden price movements. As the market closed on 02-08-00 Cantor Fitzgerald clients were seeking to sell a 60 ton stream from 00-02s at $1,100/ton.
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